This just in from Doug:
"Hello All:Heres this week's NewsNote from the war zoneI am cheating as I left
Iraq 3 weeks ago and am in Afghanistan, but there you go.As ever, return an
unsubscribe in the subject line if you like.All the bestDougPS - Also attached
for your ease of reading. --------------- The Bush Administration is busy
snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in Iraq.Violence is down 60-percent
over the last year. The usual reasons given are the surge of 30,000 extra troops,
the slowdown of Shia militia attacks after a ceasfire from Muqtada al Sadr, and
the Sunni switch, of Sunni tribes moving away from al Qaeda and toward the
central government.Of these factors, the switch of Sunnis against al Qaeda has
made the biggest difference on the ground.In a humvee of the 10th Mountain
Division in the Triangle of Death, driving the roads near Muhmuidiyah, the change
is striking. This was at one time one of the worst areas of Iraq, on par with
Ramadi and Fallujah.Comprising the whole swathe of land west and south of Baghdad
International Airport, the Triangle of Death was a black hole of casualties and
smart insurgents. Driving the roads was an exercise in expecting the worst.Last
summer those roads actually felt different. Previously, you knew something was
going to happen somewhere. You just hoped you missed it. But by last summer,
after the Sunnis had switched, many days were clear of any insurgent activity. It
felt like a load lifting from one’s shoulders.In some areas, attacks dropped
95-percent. That’s because there were physically fewer fighters on the other side
- the Sunnis had stopped setting bombs, and then kicked al Qaeda out to boot.But
now those same Sunnis are getting the short end of the stick. The coalition isn’t
taking them seriously enough, and their cooperation is in danger of withering.On
Saturday (March 22) an army Apache attack helicopter killed six of them who were
manning a checkpoint. Local US officers knew about the checkpoint, according to
published reports. Blue-on-blue incidents are common, and the Sunnis are killed
by Americans surprisingly frequently, even as they do security jobs for low pay,
saving Amercian lives.That is, when they are paid. The Sunnis, who have a
rapidly-changing array of officials names (the latest one is Sons of Iraq), are
often not paid. Manning a checkpoint and patroling the neighborhood brings in $10
a day for these fighters. There are about 80,000 of them across the country. It
is probably the bargain of the century, given the price of a single deployed
soldier, whose weekly meal tab alone is about $500, paid under food contracts
negotiated with Kellogg Brown and Root. By now many of the 'Awakening Councils'
that manage the Sunni fighters have had enough and are threatening to strike,
because theirt men have not been paid. Several councils are already are on stike,
pushing thousands of armed and potentially dangerous men back on the street
without a job or a sense of obligation toward the Iraqi government.Worse yet,
beyond the issues of pay and fratricide, the United States has not proven itself
a staunch advocate for the Sunni groups, in the face of the Iraqi government's
reluctance to embrace them. The Sunnis want to become a legitimate part of the
security forces. But the Shia ministry of the Interior, which runs the police,
wants nothing to do with them, and routinley rejects Sunnis applying for jobs.
The Ministry of Defense is also dragging its feet, reluctant to train and arm
potential rivals. These Sunnis are getting very short shrift from the Iraqi
government and meanwhile the US does... nothing.US Army soldiers visit sheikhs
west of Baghdad regularly. These sheikhs manage the fighters and decide if this
is a good idea. They hate al Qaeda. They have nowhere to go but into this
alliance with the Americans and the Iraqi government.But desperate men take
desperate measures. Over 30 Awakening Councils are threatening to strike over the
pay issue. Given the Sunnis' role in bringing a semblance of peace to much of
Iraq, it is madness to throw these people out in the cold. It is even more mad to
give them incentives to take up arms against the central government, by killing
them recklessly and rejecting their legitimate claims to security jobs. In 2003
the Sunnis used the rationale of protecting their community and interests when
they started this whole mess of an insurgency. In 2008 history must not be
allowed to repeat itself." D.G.