US

We recieved this latest News Note from Doug Grindle, a member of WCCA and former community producer now freelance reporter.

It's spring in Iraq.. in a seasonal sense anyway

Al Asad, Anbar Province, western Iraq - Like a rash that refuses to fade, violence persists in Iraq. Mosul in the north, Baghdad and areas north of Baghdad see daily attacks, though most attacks are aimed at the Iraqi security forces.
The toll of American combat deaths, which was once a flood reaching 125 a month, is now a drip of less than half a dozen a month. Officers say driving accidents are more likely to kill troops than the enemy. In northern Iraq and here in western Iraq, where it is quietest, hundreds if not thousands of US troops wonder why they are here and complain they have too little to do. The biggest complaint here at Al Asad, a large Marine base near Syria, is that the Marines spend too much time in the gym because their patrols are fewer than they once were. It is no big secret that the Marine top brass has been trying to exit Anbar entirely and shift their forces to Afghanistan for over a year.
Still fighting in Iraq are remnants of Al Qaeda, remnants of the Shia militias, remnants of Sunni Islamists and Sunni nationalists. Add in localized tribal fights. Add in local retribution against the Iraqi government or the US military for the occasional missteps, such as accidental shootings of Iraqi civilians. Add in the organized criminal elements, many of whom were spawned by the legitimate political insurgents. The violence in Iraq has fragmented, which is both good and bad.
It's bad because no one group laying down its arms will quell a whole mass of fighting. The Sunnis gave up in November 2006 and the effects were enormously far-reaching. But that won't likely happen again on such a massive scale.
Then again it's also good, because as anyone who has watched tag-team wrestling on television will know, opponents operating piecemeal are much easier to cut up than those who fight as a unified team.
So the question remains, just why does America still have 130,000 plus troops in Iraq if many of them are wondering what they are going to do today, tomorrow and the next day to justify their (generally tax free) pay checks?
They are here because America is Iraq’s insurance policy.
If the Shia militias reorganize, as analysts in Baghdad say they are (unsuccessfully) trying to. If Al Qaeda manages to kick off sectarian violence again (as it is likely trying to do, with the recent killing of dozens of Shia pilgrims heading to Karbala). If Sunni nationalists feel the Maliki government has stuck it to them, and want to stick it back (as is the fear, with the government's avowed aim of dismantling the widespread pro-government Sunni counter-terrorism groups, named the Sons of Iraq).
If any of these things should happen, US forces are ready to step in and do what the Iraqi security forces may or may not be able to do for themselves.
General Petraeus reportedly has sent a plan calling for a 23-month withdrawal from Iraq to the White House. That’s longer than Barack Obama's repeated 16-month preference. Most likely the withdrawal will never be down to zero at all, despite tough talk by the Maliki government and the White House, and few people in Iraq I've spoke to expect the US military presence will ever reach zero.
Officers of the Iraqi security forces say they still need US support, moral as much as material, as they slowly improve. Above all, America provides the moral fiber that gives the ISF the psychological edge over their well-armed, determined, though now battered, opponents.
These are the forces at play in Iraq.
How soon America can draw down its troops without upsetting the delicate balance of these forces is the game that will be played out for the rest of 2009 in Iraq and Washington.

Take care
Doug

Doug Grindle, October 14, 2008 Pech Valley, northeast Afghanistan

This is a fairly wild region thats just now coming under better control - and slowly at that.

Afghanistan is Improving Slowly. As much as the news from Afghanistan tends to be bad these days, some bright spots are already faintly discernable on the horizon.As I have mentioned, things in Afghanistan are no piece of cake. Attacks are up about 30 percent this year.

For the first time the generals have said the situation in Pakistan will need to be solved before the war in Afghanistan can be won. And the war is getting deadlier. More than 130 US soldiers dead so far this year. Roadside bombs, used to such deadly effect in Iraq, are now well and truly part of the Afghan scene. The Afghan defense minister said the other day bomb makers, sophisticated enough to know how to blow apart coalition vehicles, are forsaking Iraq as a lost cause and flocking here instead.And the drug trade continues, often under the protection and sponsorship of the Taliban. Corruption is rife in the government and security forces.Whew! How bad can it get over here? It's pretty bad.And yet.. and yet.Some of those hopeful signs are starting to emerge, and they are going to get bigger as the time goes on.

Development is the keynote of the strategy to win here. Here in the Pech Valley, I am typing this on a small base by a river on the valley floor. The Pech used to be terrible from one end to the other. About 2 years ago the government (paid for by the US) ran a paved road along the bottom. Now the Pech Valley is pretty quiet on the bottom, and the insurgents spent most of their time in the hills above the valley, dropping in mortars and rockets on bases like this one. The moral: development works. Too bad it will take another year before roads go into the side valleys, where the same peace-making can be expected to take place. Some places will never be peaceful (the Korengal, a side valley of the Pech, is one example). But overall,
development works. - In the northeast the US military is now moving to arm the
local tribes to fight the insurgents. This is the same strategy that General David
Petraeus (now commander of US Central Command) used in Iraq to win the support of the Sunnis. Which won the war there. Essentially, you pay the tribes to act as
militiamen. For a wage they fight the insurgents. It is the earliest of days yet
to see if this will work here (about 2 weeks in). But we know unemployment causes
instability. 10 percent of the population is poor enough to want to fight for
their supper. This strategy ought to work here as it worked in Iraq.- Corruption
is plenty lousy. But the government is finally beginning to fire people who have
their hand in the till. Five provincial governors are 'reformist' governors whose
backgrounds are working for NGOs. They are the antithesis of warlords, who are
universally corrupt.

A body called the Independent Directorate for Local Governance has been set up to appoint provincial government officials, who are generally not corrupt. Still, all too often corrupt officials are let off. Or they are 'fired' and promoted. But there are Afghans out there who will resist bribery on a large scale. The earliest steps have been taken.- The economy is getting better, slowly. People are desperately poor still. Prices are rising. But the number of cars in Kabul has risen approximately four-fold since 2001. There is money in the markets of provincial capitals. As roads are built trade invariably increases. The process is just beginning- Afghanistan can expect a mini-surge of US troops. Some analysts, such as the British ambassador to Afghanistan, believe foreign troops are the problem not the solution. Not so. A surge of troops into the northeast, which can insulate Pakistan’s restive tribal area across the border, will bring much of the stability needed to build more roads! This is a
good thing, even though many other provinces will not be covered. And even though
the money for roads too limited, even here near Pakistan.

The Afghan National Army (ANA) is supposed to double to about 125,000 men within 5 years. At last. The ANA is good, and this should have happened years ago.- The Pakistanis are arming their own tribal militias across the border. It could well be possible to foster a split within the Taliban, which is becoming a criminal conspiracy at heart, if the right pressure is exerted long enough.So in all, the news from Afghanistan is grim. It is terrible. But for the first time in months, it looks like the news from Afghanistan could be much improved by the middle of next year.